Western nations are debating the future of sweeping sanctions against Russia as President-elect Donald Trump has signaled his reluctance to use such measures to pressure Moscow.
Since Russia launched its military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022, thousands of sanctions have been imposed by dozens of countries on Russian banks, businesses, and individuals.
Now, more than 1,000 days later, with President-elect Trump preparing to take office, the effectiveness and future of these unprecedented sanctions are being reexamined. Trump has stated, "I want to use as few sanctions as possible," and has indicated a shift in U.S. policy toward Ukraine, promising to end the conflict.
Experts believe Western sanctions and military aid to Ukraine will be crucial bargaining chips in any negotiations with Russia. But how valuable are these sanctions as leverage for Trump?
This question has sparked intense debate.
Early predictions that economic sanctions would quickly weaken President Vladimir Putin’s government or cause the Russian ruble to collapse have not materialized. Russia’s economy has proven resilient, and its military continues to make significant gains on the Ukrainian battlefield.
However, Sergei Guriev, a Russian economist who left the country in 2013 and now heads the London Business School, argues that expecting sanctions to rapidly end the conflict was always more of a hopeful assumption than a realistic outcome.
Instead, he suggests measuring success by asking whether sanctions have effectively hindered Russia’s ability to conduct its military campaign. According to Guriev and other analysts, the answer is a qualified "yes."
Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S., Europe, and allied nations responded with unprecedented speed and scale. They restricted Moscow’s access to the global financial system and U.S. dollars, undermined its ability to sell oil—its most valuable export—and froze over $300 billion of Russian assets in Western banks. Governments also banned trade in key technologies, including advanced weaponry.
Europe, which previously imported 40% of its gas from Russia, has significantly reduced its reliance on this cheap energy source. Russian gas sales to Europe have plummeted, particularly after Ukraine refused to renew a transit agreement allowing Russian gas to flow through its territory as of January 1.
"Imagine what would have happened if these sanctions had not been applied—if Russia’s foreign trade were unrestricted and they had access to all their frozen reserves," Guriev said.
"Sanctions have undeniably caused problems for President Putin, reduced Russia’s resources, and provided Ukraine with a lifeline," he emphasized. "Without them, Russia might already have defeated Ukraine."
While Russia’s economy has remained functional, it has felt the pressure. Inflation has surged, prompting the Russian central bank to raise interest rates to 21%.
Although the Russian government has spent heavily on its Ukraine campaign, overall economic growth has slowed. Many goods and components are either unavailable, more expensive, or replaced with lower-quality substitutes.
Elina Ribakova, vice president of foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics, notes that sanctions will serve as "high-value bargaining chips" when Trump sits at the negotiation table with Putin. Experts agree that the most effective sanctions target the global financial system, a domain where the U.S. wields overwhelming power.
The U.S. dollar functions as the world’s closest equivalent to a universal currency, with only U.S. banks authorized to process dollar transactions. Consequently, a significant portion of the world’s financial assets, including foreign-owned U.S. dollar accounts, fall under American control.
Washington has not only cut Moscow off from much of this system but also warned global banks against violating its rules, a risk even Chinese financial institutions have avoided despite Beijing’s pro-Russia stance.
Russia’s exclusion from SWIFT, the global interbank messaging system, has further increased costs, complexity, and delays for its international transactions, from pharmaceuticals to energy exports.
"It’s essentially paralyzing their payment systems," said Andrew Shoyer, a partner at U.S. law firm Sidley Austin who advises companies on sanctions compliance.
Yet the sanctions' impact has been less dramatic than many in the West anticipated. Over time, Russia, with support from partners, has found ways to mitigate the pressure.
China and India have significantly boosted Russian revenue by purchasing large volumes of crude oil and natural gas. Many dual-use goods, which can serve both civilian and military purposes, have circumvented sanctions through third-party countries like Turkey and the UAE.
Critics argue that the West hasn’t gone far enough or acted swiftly enough to tighten sanctions against Russia. Concerns over global energy supplies and inflation led the U.S. and Europe to ease restrictions on Russian energy exports. Rather than banning oil trade entirely, Europe imposed price caps, allowing Moscow to continue earning substantial revenue.
Russia has also developed new methods to evade sanctions, such as creating its own tanker fleet to transport oil after restrictions limited its access to Western shipping.
Meanwhile, the EU continues to buy nearly 50% of Russia’s liquefied natural gas exports.
Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, observed that Russia has managed to sell "too much gas and oil at too high prices." "Sanctions have been implemented with one hand tied behind our backs," he said. Partial enforcement and inconsistent measures have diluted the sanctions’ effectiveness, he noted.
Some analysts suggest that even the most robust sanctions may fail to compel a shift in Putin’s stance on Ukraine, especially if his allies, such as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government, collapse, pushing him toward more aggressive positions.
Observers speculate that under Trump’s leadership, sanctions are unlikely to "cripple" Russia’s economy as originally intended. Whether sanctions remain potent bargaining tools depends on Putin’s willingness to concede, something he has consistently refused under Western pressure.
(Sources: AFP, Reuters, Euronews)
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