Donald Trump's return to the White House is poised to accelerate efforts to end conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East while intensifying great power competition in 2025.
The year 2024 witnessed geopolitical upheavals worldwide, including renewed Middle Eastern tensions, turning points in the Russia-Ukraine war, and Trump's election victory with strong rhetoric toward allies and adversaries alike. Analysts predict his presidency will significantly shape global affairs, potentially escalating strategic rivalries between superpowers.
Ukraine Conflict: Peace or Pressure?
Trump's approach to Ukraine is expected to be a defining element of his foreign policy. He has pledged to end the conflict swiftly but has criticized U.S. aid to Kyiv, raising concerns among Ukrainians and European allies that he might pressure Ukraine to concede territory to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire.
Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and Americas Program at Chatham House, predicts Trump may push for a "land-for-peace" deal, but Kyiv is unlikely to accept highly unfavorable terms. Meanwhile, Russia's forces, maintaining momentum on the battlefield, appear in no rush for a ceasefire, especially as they focus on retaking contested regions like Kursk province.
Michael Froman, a senior analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), argues the conflict is unlikely to end soon, despite Trump’s efforts. He warns the war could escalate in early 2025 until one side faces unsustainable losses. Ukraine’s reported involvement in high-profile attacks, including an alleged assassination in Moscow, complicates the situation further.
Biden’s outgoing administration recently approved nearly $6 billion in aid to Ukraine, providing critical support to counter growing Russian pressure. However, if Trump cuts U.S. assistance, European allies will struggle to fill the void, potentially weakening Ukraine’s resistance over time.
Middle East Priorities
The Middle East will be another focal point for Trump, especially securing Israel's interests and countering Iran. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, expects Trump to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back military operations in Gaza and Lebanon while maintaining Israel's security priorities.
Trump has signaled plans to reimpose sanctions on Iran, targeting its nuclear ambitions and arms transfers to Russia. While Tehran may pursue negotiations to ease economic pressure, there are concerns it could accelerate its nuclear weapons program as a deterrent.
China: Intensifying Rivalry
Trump’s policy toward China is expected to heighten tensions. He has threatened a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, potentially using it as leverage to force concessions from Beijing. Analysts predict a tit-for-tat escalation, with Trump potentially proposing a temporary trade deal if China pressures Moscow to end the Ukraine conflict.
Vinjamuri warns this approach may face domestic resistance, even within the Republican Party, but reflects bipartisan consensus on taking a tougher stance against Beijing.
Trump’s return may also influence flashpoints in Asia, including the South China Sea, Taiwan, and North Korea. Meanwhile, political turmoil in South Korea following martial law raises uncertainties about the U.S.-ROK alliance's future stability.
Challenges of Global Leadership
Trump’s unilateral approach to international relations could undermine collective efforts to address global challenges, creating a leadership vacuum. Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador, predicts heightened geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, testing nations’ ability to collaborate on shared issues.
"Trump’s America will prioritize its own rules, imposing tariffs or demands until other nations comply with its interests," said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. This "America First" approach may erode multilateralism, further straining global stability.
(Sources: The Conversation, Wall Street Journal, CFR)
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