The U.S. Navy’s ambitious plan to expand its fleet with 85 new warships over the next 30 years could cost approximately $1.2 trillion, according to a January 14 report from Defense News citing the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Aiming for a 381-Ship Fleet

The Navy intends to increase its active fleet size from 296 ships to 381 by 2054 to address growing global threats. However, the fleet is projected to shrink to 283 ships by 2027 as older vessels are retired faster than new ones can be commissioned.

“Shipbuilding will peak in the early 2030s, reflecting the Navy’s desire to expand its fleet as quickly as possible,” the CBO report states. The CBO, which provides nonpartisan cost estimates for legislation, projects an average annual expenditure of $40 billion on shipbuilding over the next three decades, totaling $1.2 trillion—17% higher than the Navy’s own estimates.

The cost overruns are attributed to longer and more complex construction timelines for certain ships, as well as unrealistically low initial cost projections for some vessels.

Expensive and Unprecedented

The CBO highlights that the Navy’s shipbuilding plan is far costlier than recent spending levels and historical norms. Over the past decade, shipbuilding budgets have risen significantly, reaching their highest levels since President Ronald Reagan’s 1980s initiative to build a 600-ship Navy.

Since 2015, Congress has allocated an average of $2.5 billion more annually for shipbuilding than requested by presidents, driven by concerns that the current fleet is too small to meet global operational demands.

Challenges in U.S. Shipbuilding

Achieving the Navy’s ambitious expansion goals will require a significant boost in shipyard productivity. However, the U.S. shipbuilding industry faces rising costs, workforce shortages, and delays that have plagued multiple projects.

Eric Labs, a veteran naval analyst at the CBO, described the industry as being in its “worst state” in 25 years. “I am deeply concerned. There’s no quick or easy fix to these issues,” Labs warned late last year.

A Critical Moment

The Navy’s push for fleet expansion reflects an urgent need to modernize and compete with global powers like China, which has surpassed the U.S. in fleet size. To meet its goals, the U.S. must overcome significant logistical and financial hurdles while addressing inefficiencies in the shipbuilding sector.

(Reported by Defense News and AP)

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